Trump’s Gut vs. Xi’s Strategy:
High-Stakes APEC Summit Tests Two Leaders’ Styles
As the two leaders prepare for rare
meeting, analysts doubt US leader can sway China’s calculated strategist
As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their
first meeting in six years ahead of the APEC summit in South Korea, analysts
doubt Trump’s instinct-driven approach can sway China’s methodical and
calculating leader.
Trump, relying on personal chemistry and intuition
rather than preparation, hopes for a “fantastic” trade deal covering rare
earths, tariffs, soybeans, and Taiwan. But Xi, backed by meticulous planning
and growing leverage in strategic materials, is unlikely to be moved by charm.
Experts note that both leaders project confidence
but face economic fragility—China with a slowing economy and US with inflation
and political paralysis. The lack of backchannel communication raises risks of
miscalculation.
While a major breakthrough is unlikely, limited
agreements—on fentanyl, soybean and aircraft purchases, and easing of some
trade restrictions—remain possible. Beijing sees any deal as a tactical pause
to buy time for its push toward tech self-sufficiency and long-term strategic
advantage.
US
President Donald Trump is expected to approach his coming summit with Xi
Jinping by relying on personal chemistry and his “gut”, but his ability to
charm the Chinese leader will be limited at best, analysts and former
government officials in Washington said on Tuesday.
The
first meeting in six years between the heads of the world’s two largest
economies is expected to take place shortly before the October 31-November 1
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in South Korea. Among the topics on
the radar in their high-stakes summit include rare earth minerals, tariffs,
export controls, soybean purchases and Taiwan.
“I’ve
never encountered anyone as cold blooded in their calculations of national or
personal interest as Xi Jinping,” said Ryan Hass, former China director with
the National Security Council during the administration of US President Joe
Biden.
“And
I don’t expect that that’s going to change any time soon,” added Hass, a senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution. “He’s not emotionally soft. He’s not
easily swayed by charm. And I think that we should take that into account.”
Trump
said within a 24-hour period he expected to seal a “fantastic” and “good” and
“fair” trade deal with Xi even as he warned that the sit-down might be put off.
“I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting,” he said at a White
House lunch before pivoting. “Maybe it won’t happen,” he added. “Maybe somebody
will say, ‘I don’t want to meet. It’s too nasty’. But it’s really not nasty.”
Trump
downplays Taiwan dispute in China talks
Trump
has long touted the perceived power of his intuition, brushing aside the need
for preparation or groundwork in business and state affairs, an approach he
believes puts opponents on the defensive.
Asked
in April how he would proceed after reversing his “Liberation Day” tariffs in
favour of bilateral trade negotiations, he responded: “Instinctively, more than
anything else … You almost can’t take a pencil to paper, it’s really more of an
instinct than anything else.”
This
echoed comments he made about the economy during his first term: “My gut tells
me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
In
a battle of styles, however, Trump faces in Xi the leader of a system that
plans exhaustively, does not ad lib or play it by ear to ensure that its
leaders and the ruling Communist Party are not embarrassed, undercut or made to
look weak or undignified.
Xi
has also flexed his muscles in recent weeks, making little secret of the power
and leverage Beijing believes it now holds with its tight grip on rare earth
minerals and magnets.
Beijing’s
tightening on October 9 of export controls over these strategic materials used
in hi-tech products from blenders to fighter jets, which caused global shock
waves, is not likely to be reversed by grins and handshakes, analysts said.
“Xi
is going on the offence,” said Jonathan Czin, a Brookings fellow and former
China expert at the CIA. “This was a strategic move. It wasn’t just a tactical
move that was focused on the next round of meetings.”
Xi
issues rallying call against protectionism in Brics speech
Entering
the talks, Xi senses weakness in recent US concessions over Taiwan and tech
restrictions and is feeling confident, analysts said.
Internationally,
he is coming off a well-received Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and
military parade in Beijing. And domestically he has just purged nine top
military leaders, dispelling any lingering doubts about who is boss, and is
poised to take a victory lap at the upcoming plenum.
“The
Chinese will relish the idea of rolling out a consolidated consensus among
leadership behind a five-year plan, in contrast to a government in the United
States that’s shut down and not able to plan, let alone fund its government for
the year ahead.”
Analysts
said a key problem going into the meeting is that both sides are a bit brash
and may be more vulnerable than they think.
“US
leaders feel really confident. At the moment Chinese leaders feel really
confident. It doesn’t seem like either side feels like it needs to do a lot of
things that would provide space for the other,” said Zack Cooper, a fellow with
the American Enterprise Institute. “It’s more likely that both sides are not as
strong as they think, and so over time, that’s going to create huge problems
and some really bad miscommunication.”
China’s
GDP slowed to 4.8 per cent in the third quarter from 5.2 per cent in the second
quarter. The housing market has declined at its fastest pace in 11 years,
consumption has wobbled, the population is ageing and youth unemployment
remains politically and economically worrisome.
The
US economy, meanwhile, faces potential storm clouds given the risk of inflation
from Trump’s tariff policy; the country has been unable to pass substantive
legislation, unemployment is rising and much of the government’s administrative
expertise is being cored out.
The
risk is that each side fails to anticipate the other’s reaction because they
are not in backchannel contact. A taste of this was seen recently when China
imposed rare earth export restrictions after Washington vastly increased
sanctions on Chinese companies, with each taken aback by the other’s move.
“There’s
going to be both this surprise that they’re having more challenges than they
expected,” said Cooper. “The challenge is, how does that action-reaction cycle
work when both sides are reassessing both themselves and each other? That’s
part of what makes this a very tricky moment.”
Analysts
said there is little expectation of a grand bargain coming out of next week’s
talks. Earlier US pressure on China to reform its state-led economic model, end
dumping and enact structural reform has lessened in favour of Trump’s more
transactional approach.
Possible
deal elements may involve Chinese curbs on fentanyl ingredients, purchases of
aircraft and soybeans – which Trump badly wants in advance of the 2026 midterm
election – checks on US tech export restrictions and an easing of US tariffs.
“Beijing
still very much wants a trade deal with Washington even if it doesn’t have deep
expectations that a new trade deal with the US will fundamentally improve the
bilateral relationship” to try to reduce tariffs, keep anti-China trade hawks
at bay and introduce a modicum of stability, said Patricia Kim, a Brookings
fellow.
“China
sees a trade deal as buying itself time and space to advance its long-term
goals of technological self-sufficiency and leadership in cutting-edge sectors,
which it sees as sort of the real path to winning or prevailing in a strategic
competition with the United States,” she added.