US China Trade Truce may be Extended Beyond 30 Nov in Trump Xi Talks

Beyond warm meetings between their leaders, the countries are engaging in tit-for-tat measures that call into question the stability of their arrangement.

· Summit Context: President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are meeting in Washington to discuss extending their trade truce, which officially expires on November 30.

· The "Shin-Kicking" Metaphor: U.S. and Chinese officials describe their relationship like a water polo match—friendly at the leadership level ("above water"), but fraught with aggressive, retaliatory maneuvers underneath ("under the table").

· U.S. Grievances: Washington accuses Beijing of lagging on promised farm and Boeing purchases, restricting crucial mineral/rare earth exports, and issuing decrees that penalize firms for complying with foreign sanctions or conducting supply-chain audits.

· Chinese Grievances: Beijing argues the U.S. instigates the conflict, pointing to new U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech (routers, humanoid robots, AI distillation concerns), export blacklists, and the addition of major Chinese firms to military and forced-labor lists.

· Truce Extension Sticking Points: China is pushing for a long-term extension of the trade truce, while the U.S. favors a shorter six-month renewal to keep pressure on Beijing regarding unfulfilled commitments.

· Key Discussion Areas: Upcoming talks will address artificial intelligence safety, rare earth supplies, a potential "board of trade" to lower tariffs on $30 billion of goods, and broader geopolitical issues like the war in Iran and fentanyl.

· Analyst Outlook: Experts warn that despite the optimistic pomp of the state visit, ongoing tit-for-tat actions create a high risk of miscalculation that could inadvertently shatter the fragile bilateral arrangement.

[ABS News Service/22.09.2026]

When the United States and China reached a trade truce during a meeting in South Korea a year ago, it helped restore some stability to an economic relationship that was threatening to spin out of control.

The agreement forced President Trump to walk back punishing tariffs on Chinese exports, and made China promise to maintain exports of critical minerals that it had cut off in response to the president’s levies.

Negotiators appear to be preparing to extend that agreement as Xi Jinping, the leader of China, comes to Washington to meet with Mr. Trump later this week. On Sunday night, U.S. officials said that they would discuss setting up a dialogue on artificial intelligence and promoting trade in nonsensitive goods like energy and consumer products when Mr. Trump meets Mr. Xi this week.

But despite the plans for a warm state dinner and other pomp and circumstance at the White House, the truce between the United States and China has been uneasier than it might appear. It has not prevented either government from continuing to take action against one another in ways that have sometimes threatened to upset the agreement entirely. Both nations have blamed each other for violating promises made last October in Korea.

U.S. officials say that China’s exports of many minerals necessary for cars, semiconductors and power tools are still overly restricted, leaving some companies uncertain about their supplies. China’s purchases of farm goods lag behind promised levels. And U.S. companies have also been deeply worried about a series of decrees that China’s State Council has issued since March, which expanded the Chinese government’s power over global companies that operate in China.

The rules restrict the unauthorized auditing of supply chains in China — something that is necessary for firms to comply with forced labor laws — and penalize firms for complying with foreign sanctions against Chinese firms. They also tighten state oversight for outbound investments and mineral exports, raising the question of how much influence Beijing will exert over global business.

American officials have also continued to bar more Chinese technology from the United States, from routers to humanoid robots. The United States has recently accused China of copying American A.I. models through what it has labeled “industrial distillation.”

In June, the U.S. added a slew of major Chinese firms to a list of Chinese military companies. And in July, the Trump administration added dozens of Chinese companies to a trade blacklist related to forced labor.

In response, China sanctioned seven U.S. firms that help companies verify and map out their supply chains, including testing for cotton grown in Xinjiang, which the United States banned because of concerns about forced labor. The dueling regulations have put companies in a bind, since engaging in the supply chain checks required by U.S. law mean they could be penalized in China.

The moves, some say, have been calibrated to fly under Mr. Trump’s radar and not upset the overall relationship. But they are still harmful to companies on both sides of the Pacific, and a reflection of the deep challenges in the bilateral relationship that go beyond any rapport between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

“The overall relationship comes down from the top, and President Trump, Xi Jinping have a very good relationship,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who leads negotiations with China, said in an interview with FOX Business in July. “But, you know, that’s not an excuse for them to do things underneath the surface,” he said, referring to the Chinese.

Mr. Bessent said he sometimes described the relationship as “a water polo match” where leaders were hitting the ball back and forth. But under the water, the Chinese were doing “a lot of kicking,” he said, adding, “if we have to, we’ll kick back.”

An editorial in August in the China Daily, a state-run publication, agreed that it was a “perfect metaphor” but called it “an almost perfect inversion of reality,” saying that the United States was the one instigating the kicking.

Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, said there was “still room for shin-kicking under the table,” but “there are limits to how hard the kicking can occur.”

Mr. Hass, at a Brookings panel last week, said that the “gentlemen’s agreement” the leaders had reached in South Korea set parameters around highly sensitive issues like tech restrictions, tariffs and behavior toward Taiwan, but did not restrict the countries’ actions in other areas.

“For the last many months, what we’ve seen is kind of a testing and probing by both sides to understand what can be done competitively while still keeping that leader-level rapprochement on track,” Mira Rapp-Hooper, a visiting fellow at Brookings, said at the same event.

“I don’t think any of us can predict with any certainty how long an arrangement like this could go,” she said, calling it “an extremely unique way to handle a great power relationship.”

Officials on both sides will be focused on positive announcements next week. The United States is pushing for China to fulfill promises made earlier this year to buy U.S. farm goods and Boeing airplanes.

Both countries appear interested in making progress to set up a new “board of trade” that could lower tariffs on $30 billion of goods on each side. And analysts are watching to see how much progress the meetings will make on issues like A.I. safety and the war in Iran, and whether they will address Taiwan or Chinese investment in the United States.

But most analysts believe the biggest focus of the trip will be ensuring that basic stability between the countries continues. China has pushed for a longer extension of the current trade truce, which expires in November, but the U.S. has proposed it be extended for just six months to keep negotiations on a tighter leash, people familiar with the negotiations say.

In a briefing with reporters Friday, an administration official declined to say whether the truce would be extended, saying that it would be on the agenda for the meeting. The official also said that China’s performance in supplying the U.S. and global economy with rare earths had not been up to U.S. expectations and would be discussed, along with topics like A.I. safety and China’s role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

The meetings this week could simply lay the groundwork for an extension of the truce, with any announcement coming later. In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, U.S. officials said that the trade truce didn’t officially expire until Nov. 30, so it wasn’t critical it be extended immediately.

Sara Schuman, a former U.S. trade official and a managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, said the Chinese would like to see the truce extended for as long as possible, but the United States wants more frequent renegotiations that would allow it to press China on commitments that have not been fulfilled.

“From the U.S. perspective, right now China is just barely squeaking through on its commitments on critical minerals and rare earths,” Ms. Schuman said. “My expectation is that there’s a direct correlation between what China offers on critical minerals in this meeting and whether or not the truce is extended, and for how long,” she added.

Geoffrey Gertz, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank, said there was a “real risk” in the coming months that one side would unintentionally upset the trade truce by crossing what the other party sees as a red line.

“I think over time, some type of that miscalculation, misperception is pretty likely,” he said.