The first blockade in April choked off Iranian exports without causing a
lasting price surge. Now global oil reserves are lower, and ships face heightened
risks.
·
Blockade Reimposed:
U.S. President Donald Trump
has reinstated a naval blockade
on Iranian ports following renewed hostilities with Iran.
·
First Blockade Impact:
The initial blockade in April
2026 significantly reduced Iran's oil exports and revenue but did
not trigger a prolonged surge in global oil prices.
·
Higher Risks Now:
Analysts warn that a second blockade could have a greater impact because global
oil markets have fewer supply buffers.
·
Low U.S. Oil Reserves:
U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983,
limiting the ability to stabilize markets.
·
Shipping Risks Increase:
Rising attacks near the Strait
of Hormuz have increased risks and costs for oil shipments.
·
Strategic Waterway:
Around 20% of the world's oil
trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making disruptions a
major concern.
·
Oil Prices Rise:
Brent crude
climbed to around US$87 per
barrel, its highest level in about a month, after the announcement.
·
Possible Price Volatility:
Analysts expect a continued geopolitical
risk premium on oil and gas prices even without full-scale conflict.
·
China's Role:
China's reduced crude oil imports have helped moderate global prices, but any increase
in its demand could push prices higher.
·
Regional Response:
Gulf producers such as Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are investing in alternative pipeline
routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
·
Impact on Iran:
The earlier blockade cut more than 1.5
million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports, significantly reducing
government revenue.
·
Iran Better Prepared:
Experts believe Iran may now be better positioned to withstand another blockade
after rebuilding revenues during the temporary ceasefire.
·
Political Considerations:
Rising fuel prices could become a political challenge for the Trump administration
ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Trump's renewed blockade of Iranian ports has increased uncertainty
in global energy markets. With lower oil reserves, heightened shipping risks, and
continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to remain
volatile, posing risks to global energy security and inflation.
[ABS News Service/15.07.2026]
President Trump’s first naval blockade on Iranian ports in April
caused oil prices to rise, but not to the stratospheric levels some feared. And
Tehran’s oil exports plunged, depriving Iran of billions in revenue.
The strategy may be harder to pull off a second time without inflicting
broader collateral damage to markets.
U.S. oil reserves, which have been steadily drawn down since the
start of the war to help combat global shortages, are now at their lowest levels since 1983. Commercial inventories also have been run down. And other oil-producing
countries in the region may have a harder time getting their ships out because of
the heightened risks.
Another wild card is China. Usually the world’s largest oil importer,
China has been helping to keep oil prices
at bay by significantly decreasing imports
of crude. New data on Tuesday showed that pattern held at least through June. But China
might not continue on that path.
“We have now run through all of the buffers which helped moderate
oil and natural gas and to some extent fertilizer and helium prices for the first
three or four months of the war,” said David L. Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat
and Energy Department official.
A month after signing a truce, Iran and the United States have slid
back to open warfare. Conditions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for
oil and gas shipments, have deteriorated significantly after days of back-and-forth
strikes.
With Iran attacking more ships, Mr. Trump announced on Monday that
the United States would reinstate its blockade of Iranian ports. He also said he
would charge a 20 percent fee on cargo transiting the strait, though a day later said he would
“replace” the fees for “various” states in the Persian Gulf that invested in the
United States.
His turnabout left key questions unaddressed and could stir more
uncertainty for shippers. Oil prices soared in response. Brent crude, the international
benchmark, was trading near $87 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level in about
a month.
“Even without a return to full-out combat, it might be hard to keep
a lid on prices,” Clearview Energy Partners, a Washington research firm, warned
in a note to clients.
Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passed through
the Strait of Hormuz, making any threat to shipping a major concern for energy markets.
But increasingly, analysts said, countries and companies are adapting to a new normal
in which moving energy out of the Persian Gulf is fraught and, at least for a while,
expensive. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are
increasingly seeking ways to avoid the strait by expanding pipelines or developing
new ones, costly endeavors.
“There will be a geopolitical risk premium on oil and gas prices
in the future,” said Jorge León, a senior vice president with Rystad Energy, a consulting
firm.
After the war began on Feb. 28, with joint strikes by the United
States and Israel, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships from most
countries. Global oil prices rose, of course, reaching around $100 per barrel a
week into the conflict.
Then on April 13, the United States put in place its first blockade, prompting oil prices to shoot above $120 per barrel by the end
of the month, the highest since the conflict started.
But slowly prices sank again. By the time the United States and Iran
signed the short-lived memorandum of understanding ending hostilities in mid-June,
oil was trading around $80 a barrel. Prices eventually dropped even further as a
growing number of vessels sailed through the strait.
For Iran, the effect of the blockade was dire. Oil exports through
the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about 80 percent of total Iranian exports. The
United States choked off more than 1.5 million barrels per day — amounting to billions
of dollars. Squeezing Tehran’s most important source of income put pressure on Iran
to agree to the cease-fire, analysts said.
And yet Iran also acquired some advantages during that time. As part
of the agreement, Mr. Trump granted a temporary waiver to sanctions that allowed
for the sale of Iranian oil and an agreement to lift the blockade. Those measures
gave Iran “valuable breathing space,” said Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.
Iran exported around 45 million to 50 million barrels of crude oil
after Mr. Trump lifted the first blockade, according to data provided by Rystad.
That translates into billions of dollars that went to replenish the government’s
coffers.
That was made possible, Mr. Brooks noted, because Iran was using
empty tankers to store oil around the strait.
“The big mistake that was made in the first round of the blockade
was to allow empty Iran tankers into the gulf,” he said, adding that the Trump administration
“definitely can’t do that again.”
He and others speculated that Iran might be in a better position
now to ride out the effects of a new blockade.
The Trump administration, according to Mr. Goldwyn, the former U.S.
government official, is essentially trying to convince the oil market that the United
States has control over the strait. And, he noted, ahead of critical midterm congressional
elections in November, Mr. Trump is also facing political pressure to keep prices
at heel.
“The Iranians can take this pain well past November,” Mr. Goldwyn
said, adding, “The question is, can the Trump administration?”