US Iran Talks in Switzerland Enter Critical Phase
Vice President JD Vance is in a
politically precarious spot.
1.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is leading
negotiations with Iran to secure a lasting peace and nuclear agreement
following recent hostilities.
2.
During ongoing talks, U.S. President Donald Trump complicated
negotiations by publicly threatening renewed military action if Iran closed the
Strait of Hormuz.
3.
Despite the tensions, both sides have signed a memorandum of
understanding to end hostilities and are working toward a comprehensive
nuclear agreement within 60 days.
4.
Vance described the first round of negotiations as having
established a “successful foundation” for peace, though significant
disagreements remain.
5.
Trump has publicly joked that he would take credit if the
deal succeeds but blame Vance if it fails, highlighting the political risks
facing the Vice President.
6.
The negotiations are seen as a major test for Vance, who is
widely viewed as a potential Republican candidate in the 2028 presidential
election.
7.
Analysts argue Vance could gain political credit for ending
an unpopular conflict, but he also risks being blamed if the agreement is
perceived as too favorable to Iran.
8.
According to foreign-policy experts, Vance's position is
especially challenging because successful implementation depends on cooperation
from Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard leadership.
9.
Soon after the Switzerland talks, differences emerged
between U.S. and Iranian accounts of the discussions:
o Vance said Iran agreed
to allow U.N. nuclear inspectors greater access.
o Iranian officials
denied making any new commitments.
10.
Another disagreement arose over a proposed arrangement
involving Qatari-facilitated access to frozen Iranian assets:
o The U.S. suggested
funds could be used to purchase American agricultural products.
o Iranian officials
rejected that characterization and said funds would support reconstruction
efforts.
11.
Publicly conflicting statements from both sides have become
a recurring feature of the negotiations as each government seeks to satisfy
domestic political audiences.
12.
Vance has attempted to downplay these contradictions,
arguing that progress is still being made despite mixed public messaging.
13.
The current talks contrast sharply with an earlier round of
negotiations in Pakistan, where Vance acknowledged that little progress had
been achieved.
14.
The outcome of the negotiations is expected to influence:
o U.S. domestic politics,
o Republican prospects in
upcoming elections,
o Vance’s standing as a
potential successor to Trump.
15.
Trump is reportedly comparing Vance's performance with that
of Marco Rubio, another prominent Republican figure
involved in diplomacy related to Iran.
16.
Rubio is scheduled to visit Gulf allies to discuss the
evolving Iran agreement, giving Trump another opportunity to evaluate both
leaders' diplomatic effectiveness.
17.
Despite occasional criticism and public pressure, Trump
recently praised both Rubio and Vance, describing their work on foreign policy
and negotiations as “fantastic.”
18.
The success or failure of the peace process and the
prospective nuclear deal is likely to have significant implications for
regional stability, U.S.-Iran relations, energy markets, and the future
political careers of key American leaders.
As
Vice President JD Vance entered the fifth hour of negotiations with Iranian
leaders over the weekend, President Trump weighed in with an ill-timed threat
to start bombing again.
If
the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump told a Fox News reporter,
the negotiators talking to Mr. Vance would never make it back to their country
— in fact, they would have no country to return to at all.
For
Mr. Vance, this was the latest example of his increasingly tricky role as the
frontman in the U.S. negotiations with Iran, as Mr. Trump repeatedly creates
disruptions in his path.
On
Monday, Mr. Vance said the first round of talks had laid “a successful
foundation” for peace. But now, Mr. Vance will have to find a way to end a war
that he opposed at the start, while navigating his boss’s whims and an
adversary that has proved itself, at least in part, immune to Mr. Trump’s
threats.
“What
we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys engage in what us millennials
might call trash talk, you can’t expect the president of the United States not
to respond and not to correct the record,” he said on Monday at a news
conference. “So when they say things that aren’t true,
the president is going to respond to it.”
Both
sides have signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and are now
trying to strike a lasting nuclear deal in 60 days. But for Mr. Vance, the
presumptive favorite for the 2028 Republican
nomination, the situation remains politically precarious.
“If
it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Mr. Trump said of the peace deal
last week. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”
Mr.
Vance has said the president was joking, but Mr. Trump has never shied away
from deflecting blame onto others — and how Mr. Vance handles the future of the
negotiations will factor into Republicans’ performance in the midterm elections
and his future as a potential successor to Mr. Trump.
Karim
Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
said Mr. Vance was in a risky spot. He could get credit for ending an unpopular
war, Mr. Sadjadpour said. Or he may end up being “viewed as the architect of an
American humiliation and a deal that concedes billions of dollars to a
committed U.S. adversary.”
Making
the situation even more difficult, the vice president must depend on the
cooperation of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders.
“That’s
not an auspicious position for any American politician, let alone an aspiring
president,” Mr. Sadjadpour said.
And
even as Americans are clamoring for the Trump
administration to stop the fighting and bring down energy costs, Mr. Sadjadpour
argued that Americans seem to care more about how wars end. He pointed out that
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. nose-dived in the polls after the withdrawal of American
forces from Afghanistan, during which 13 U.S. service members were killed.
“Americans
dislike wars, but they dislike defeats even more,” he said.
Almost
immediately after Mr. Vance left Switzerland, the foundation he outlined for a
possible longer-term deal started showing cracks. The vice president said Iran
had agreed to invite U.N. nuclear inspectors into the country, but the Iranians
said they had made “no new commitments.”
Mr.
Vance also described a potential funding scheme in which Qatar would unfreeze
assets for the Iranians to use to buy American soy, corn and wheat. Hours
later, Mr. Trump repeated that idea in the Oval Office and said food for the
Iranian population was “going to be bought exclusively through the United
States from our farmers.” Iranian officials rejected that idea and have said in
the past that the money will be going toward rebuilding its infrastructure.
Conflicting
narratives about the state of the negotiations have become commonplace in
recent weeks as American and Iranian officials try to appease their domestic
audiences and bring an end to the conflict.
Mr.
Vance tried to downplay the public disagreements.
“I
would just encourage the media: Mistrust a little bit what you see coming out
of Iranian social media,” he told reporters before boarding Air Force Two to
return to Washington. “They can be confusing negotiators, but we feel like
we’re making progress.”
It
was a markedly different tone than Mr. Vance’s last face-to-face meeting with
the Iranians when he spent 21 hours in Pakistan and left with “bad news” and
said they were not “able to make headway.” As Mr. Vance works to balance the
negotiations and his own political future, Mr. Trump has been quizzing aides
and allies over the last several months about whether they think Mr. Vance has
what it takes to win the presidency.
He
often compares him to Secretary of State Marco Rubio — and he will have another
opportunity to size up the two men this week when Mr. Rubio heads to the
Persian Gulf to discuss the Iran deal with allies.
When
asked how Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio were doing, Mr. Trump said on Monday that
they were doing a “fantastic job.”
“Our
secretary is fantastic,” he said of Mr. Rubio. “I think he’s maybe going to go
down as the best ever. And I thought JD Vance this morning was fantastic. I
watched his news conference from Switzerland. He’s a very smart guy. He did a
great job.”