Sources say the decision is expected to be
a compromise between Donald Trump, Washington’s China hawks and Taipei’s lobbyists
o The US is considering postponing
announcement of major new arms
sales to Taiwan until after the November APEC summit in Shenzhen.
o Sources cited by South China Morning Post say
President Donald Trump could potentially extend the delay through the end of 2026.
2. Xi-Trump meetings influence timing
o The reported delay would cover two
important meetings:
§ Trump-Xi bilateral meeting at
the APEC summit in November.
§ Xi Jinping's expected visit to Florida for the G20 summit in December.
o The timing is therefore closely linked to
the broader US-China relationship.
3. Possible longer postponement
o One source said Trump had considered
delaying the Taiwan arms-sale decision much longer, potentially until 2028 or January 2029.
o The proposal reportedly faced strong
opposition from US officials described by the source as China hawks and from
Taiwan's supporters in Washington.
4. Possible smaller arms package
o Instead of a large multibillion-dollar
package, the administration could announce a smaller arms package between the Washington
summit and the November APEC meeting.
o Some advisers reportedly favour a piecemeal approach, with
a small sale first rather than a major package.
5. Advance notice to Beijing
o Sources said Washington could give Beijing
advance notice of any smaller arms sale.
o The objective would reportedly be to
prevent China from viewing the sale as a breach of the broader US-China
understanding.
6. Taiwan's existing delivery backlog
o The sources noted that postponing approval
might have limited
immediate impact on actual deliveries, because Taiwan already
has a substantial backlog of US weapons orders.
o US defence contractors are facing long
manufacturing queues while prioritising US inventory replenishment and active
conflicts, particularly in the Middle East.
7. US defence-industrial constraints
o The backlog is also attributed to:
§ Supply-chain bottlenecks.
§ Shortages of skilled workers.
§ Persistent capacity constraints in the US
defence industry.
8. Beijing's position
o Beijing considers Taiwan part of China and
has stated that it reserves the option of using force.
o China has strongly opposed US arms sales
to Taiwan.
o Chinese officials have reportedly
privately urged Washington to hold
off on new arms sales before Xi's visit.
9. US position on Taiwan
o The US does not recognise Taiwan as an
independent state but opposes any attempt to change the status quo through
force.
o Washington continues to supply Taiwan with
weapons under its existing policy.
10. Previous US arms packages
o Shortly before Trump's May visit to China,
Washington reportedly placed on hold a US$14
billion Taiwan arms package already approved by Congress.
o The package included PAC-3 Patriot interceptors
and the NASAMS
air-defence system.
o Six months earlier, Washington had
announced a separate US$11
billion arms sale, prompting strong Chinese opposition.
11. Historical precedent
o The report notes previous periods of
delayed Taiwan arms sales:
§ Barack Obama:
2011–2015.
§ George W. Bush:
2007–2008.
o Thus, postponement of Taiwan arms
announcements has precedent in earlier US administrations.
12. Military-to-military dialogue
o The US and China are reportedly discussing
measures to strengthen
military-to-military communication during Xi's Washington
visit.
o Possible measures include activating
additional military communication channels and strengthening existing ones.
13. Arms-control talks
o Another potential outcome under discussion
is the resumption of
US-China arms-control talks, which were suspended in 2024
following disagreements over US weapons sales to Taiwan.
o The renewed dialogue could potentially
involve military personnel.
The
reported US approach is to avoid
a major Taiwan arms announcement immediately before or around Xi Jinping's
Washington visit, while leaving open the possibility of a
smaller package. The issue is closely connected with efforts to maintain
US-China military communication and potentially revive arms-control dialogue.
[ABS News Service/19.09.2026]
The
United States is considering postponing the announcement of major arms sales to
Taiwan until after November’s Apec summit in Shenzhen, multiple sources told the
South China Morning Post. The potential delay comes as Chinese President Xi Jinping
prepares to travel to Washington next week for a state visit.
The
sources said there was a strong possibility US President Donald Trump could extend
the delay through to the end of the year, pointing to a planned bilateral meeting
between the two leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and Xi’s
expected visit to Florida for the Group of 20 (G20) summit in December.
One
source said Trump was considering various options to postpone the signing of Taiwan
arms sales, but the final outcome would be a “compromise between him, the China
hawks and Taiwan’s lobbyists”.
“President
Trump has considered delaying the [Taiwan] arms sales decision till end 2028 or
January 2029, that is, towards the end of his current term. However, he faced very
loud opposition from hawks after floating the idea,” he said.
“Delaying
it after Apec and G20 seems to be the decision for now. There is also a high chance
that he will continue to sit on it next year, as Beijing has signalled very strongly
against the military sales to Taiwan,” he said.
Noting
the existing delivery backlog for Taiwan, the source said a postponed approval “might
have limited impact on the actual delivery timeline”.
Taiwan’s
orders remain stuck in a long manufacturing queue as American defence contractors
prioritise urgent US military inventory replenishment and active combat theatres,
especially in the Middle East.
Chronic
constraints within the US defence industry – amplified by supply chain bottlenecks
and skilled labour shortages – have contributed to the backlog.
Beijing
sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.
Most
countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent
state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by
force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
According
to a source familiar with Chinese planning, officials have privately pressed the
US to hold off on any new arms sales to Taipei before Xi’s trip to Washington, echoing
the message they sent ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit in May.
While
Beijing would want sales pushed back as long as possible, officials recognised that
Washington could not stall forever, he said.
Meanwhile,
Taiwanese officials had voiced concerns about the possibility of Trump delaying
arms sales until the end of his presidency, he added.
Two
other people familiar with the discussions said the Trump administration could announce
a smaller arms package in the window between next week’s Washington summit and the
Apec meeting in November, but emphasised that a multibillion-dollar deal like those
seen in past years was less likely to materialise.
They
said Trump had been advised by some China hawks to take a “piecemeal approach”,
approving a small sale first to pacify Taipei. The Trump administration may give
Beijing advance notice of any smaller sales to ensure it is not caught off guard
and does not view the move as a breach of their understanding, according to sources.
While
the Chinese side will certainly oppose a small arms package and publicly express
its displeasure, Beijing may reluctantly come to accept it without major retaliation,
according to a person familiar with the matter.
Another
source described the delay as unsurprising, noting there had been similar delays
in the past.
Days
before Trump’s May visit to China, his administration put on hold a US$14 billion
arms package for Taiwan that had been approved by the US Congress.
The
package included advanced air and missile defence systems, including PAC-3 Patriot
interceptors and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or Nasams.
Six
months earlier, Washington had announced a separate US$11 billion arms sale to Taiwan,
drawing a strong reaction from Beijing.
The
current US arms sales delay is not without precedent. Former US president Barack
Obama froze arms sales to Taiwan from 2011 to 2015, and George W. Bush did the same
from 2007 to 2008.
A
source pointed out that Sino-American military ties and the resumption of security
dialogue hinged on Washington’s assurances regarding Taiwan.
The
SCMP reported on Thursday that the two sides were discussing possible announcements
to strengthen military-to-military ties during the Chinese leader’s visit to Washington.
Sources
said both Beijing and Washington were discussing ways to activate more military
communication channels and bolster existing ones – marking a rare bright spot in
an otherwise fiercely competitive relationship.
Another
potential deliverable under discussion is the resumption of arms-control talks suspended
in 2024 over US weapons sales to Taiwan. The dialogue could potentially include
military personnel.