US and Israel Prepare for Possible Renewed Strikes on Iran After
November Midterm Elections
Renewed hostilities might not be any more
successful than the war’s first phase, and President Trump has repeatedly canceled plans for a return to major combat.
·
Renewed Military Plans: The US
and Israeli militaries are preparing plans for a short, intensive campaign
against Iran, potentially after the US midterm elections. Military exercises
have increased, including flights over Iraq to practise strike manoeuvres.
·
Potential Targets: Possible
targets include Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile and drone arsenals, and
energy infrastructure. One target under consideration is the deeply buried Pickaxe
Mountain nuclear site, also known as Kooh Kolang.
·
Three-Day Campaign Proposal: Some US
military planners believe an intensive 72-hour campaign could inflict
sufficient economic damage on Iran to force concessions in nuclear
negotiations. However, the effectiveness of another round of strikes remains
uncertain.
·
Trump Yet to Approve Attacks:
President Donald Trump has repeatedly postponed proposed military operations,
including an attack that was reportedly close to execution earlier in October.
Although a strike this month remains possible, officials expect the
administration may wait until after the US elections.
·
US Military Reinforcements: The
United States expects its full complement of military assets—including three
aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter aircraft and Special
Operations forces—to be in position by early November.
·
Nuclear Facility Concerns: Trump
has reportedly considered using the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air
Blast bomb (MOAB), nicknamed the Mother
of All Bombs, against Pickaxe Mountain. However, weapons specialists
question its effectiveness against a deeply buried facility surrounded by
granite. Its delivery aircraft would also be vulnerable to Iranian air
defences.
·
Iran Threatens Wider Retaliation: Iranian
officials have warned that any renewed conflict would not be brief or limited.
Potential retaliatory targets could include:
o
Oil refineries and energy infrastructure in Saudi
Arabia, including facilities operated by Saudi Aramco.
o
Data centres and underwater internet cables.
o
Commercial shipping and regional energy
infrastructure.
·
Oil Prices as Strategic Leverage: Iranian
analysts believe attacks on Gulf oil facilities could drive up global energy
prices, putting pressure on the US administration and American consumers.
·
Diplomatic Negotiations Continue:
Washington is using the threat of renewed military action to pressure Tehran
over its nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran
has resisted immediate concessions on its nuclear programme, preferring to
defer the issue until later negotiations.
·
Previous Attacks Failed to Secure Major
Concessions: According to former Pentagon official Dana Stroul,
previous US-Israeli strikes, economic sanctions and the American naval blockade
have not brought Iran back to meaningful negotiations. Further military action
may not resolve the underlying strategic impasse.
·
Israel’s Political Uncertainty: Israel’s
27 October election could complicate the plans. If Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu loses, he would become a caretaker prime minister, potentially making
it harder to initiate an offensive. Alternatively, he could seek a unity
government to manage a possible war.
·
Concerns About Regional Escalation: The US
State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families
to leave Saudi Arabia amid continuing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces.
Officials fear renewed strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict.
·
Iran’s Leadership and Military Strategy: Iran’s
new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an uncertain factor for US and
Israeli intelligence. Some officials believe hard-line members of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps exercise significant influence over strategic
decisions.
Effect on
Global Trade and Energy Markets
1.
Crude Oil Prices: Attacks
on Iranian or Saudi energy infrastructure could disrupt supplies and trigger
another surge in global crude oil prices.
2.
Shipping and Freight:
Retaliation affecting commercial vessels or the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt
international shipping and increase freight and insurance costs.
3.
Inflationary Pressures: Higher
oil prices could increase transport, manufacturing and energy costs worldwide.
4.
Supply Chain Risks: Threats
to data centres and underwater internet cables could extend the conflict beyond
energy markets to digital infrastructure and international communications.
5.
Market Uncertainty: Repeated
postponements and renewed military preparations could keep energy markets
volatile even without an immediate attack.
Key
Takeaway
The US and Israel are preparing
for possible renewed military action against Iran, potentially after the US
midterm elections, but no final decision to attack has been confirmed. Iran has
threatened broader retaliation, particularly against Gulf energy
infrastructure, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict, higher oil
prices and renewed disruption to global trade.
The
U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against
Iran after the American midterm elections, according to U.S. officials and other
people briefed on the deliberations.
As
planning for a short but intensive operation progresses, the U.S. and Israeli militaries
have stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike maneuvers. Defense Secretary Pete
Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss
new strikes, U.S. officials said.
The
targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and
missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big
round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country
to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.
Still,
there are reasons to be skeptical that a renewed war would
be any more successful than the first phase of intense U.S.-Israeli strikes between
February and April. Those rounds of fighting drove up energy prices and
inflation around the world, eroded security in the Middle East and severely
strained the Pentagon’s supply of missile interceptors.
It
is also far from certain Mr. Trump will approve fresh strikes. Repeatedly this year
he has vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations, including this month
when the U.S. and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack.
All
of the officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity
to candidly discuss military planning.
Iranian
officials have promised to retaliate this time by expanding their targets beyond
commercial ships and energy infrastructure in the region to data centers and underwater internet cables.
They
say the fighting will neither be quick nor limited.
While
the United States is assembling a massive arsenal that will be fully in place by
early November, diplomatic efforts have continued, as U.S. negotiators use the potential
return to war as leverage with Iran to make progress on their demands on its nuclear
program and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
So
far, however, Iran’s negotiators have been unwilling to make concessions on the
nuclear program, insisting on deferring that issue until later in the talks.
Some
U.S. planners are convinced that an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough
economic damage to change the Iranian position.
But
U.S. officials have frequently predicted Iran’s collapse, and other Western officials
noted that Iran’s government has so far weathered the pressures on its economy.
“At
this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign
waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade,
have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,”
said Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official in
the Biden administration.
Neither
Mr. Trump nor Mr. Netanyahu “has made a compelling case for how more war would change
this strategic dilemma in an increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden region,”
said Ms. Stroul, who is now with the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy.
Israel’s
election, on Oct. 27, could complicate the plans. If Mr. Netanyahu loses, he will
become a caretaker prime minister, and it will be difficult for him to launch a
war, experts say.
But
some analysts believe that Mr. Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of an imminent
joint U.S.-Israel strike to pressure his rivals into joining a unity government
to manage the war, which would extend his hold on power.
After
Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Mr. Netanyahu formed a unity government that
brought some opposition members into a war cabinet to help make national security
decisions.
“He
could use this to call for a broad emergency government, but he will face deep suspicion
from his political rivals,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator
and the author of a biography of Mr. Netanyahu.
“If
Iran attacks, that’s one thing, but initiating an offensive strike would be extremely
difficult for him.”
Officials
say there is a small possibility that Mr. Trump could decide to begin a campaign
this month, but there are many political reasons that he is likely to wait until
after the U.S. election, not least his own promise early this month not to strike
before the vote.
The
United States will not have its full complement of military assets — including three
aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces
— in place until early November. The U.S. military prefers to conduct attacks under
the cover of night, and there will be increasing hours of darkness over Iran early
next month.
There
are also concerns that the war could spiral into a larger conflict. On Wednesday,
the U.S. State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families
to leave Saudi Arabia, as the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to attack sites
there.
A
White House official said on Wednesday the administration does not comment on military
plans “that may or may not exist.” Mr. Trump, the official added, was keeping all
options on the table to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons.
Some
officials say the targeting will avoid refineries and oil infrastructure because
Mr. Trump is eager to prevent even higher gas prices.
Both
the U.S. and Israel militaries are drafting plans for operations against Iran’s
nuclear program, according to people briefed on the work. That could include an
attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear site that Iranians call Kooh Kolang.
Mr.
Trump said last week that he was considering using a 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive
Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, against Pickaxe. Officials say Mr. Trump is enamored with the weapon in part because of its nickname, Mother
of All Bombs.
But
weapons specialists say that the MOAB explodes above ground, producing a wide blast,
and would not likely destroy an underground site like Pickaxe, which is composed
of granite. Military officials also warn that the bomb must be delivered by a slow-flying
MC-130 transport plane that would be vulnerable to Iranian antiaircraft fire.
Israel
and the United States came close to striking Iran early this month, but Mr. Trump
again decided at the last minute to postpone the attack, according to U.S. and Israeli
defense officials familiar with the details. The decision
came shortly before the operation was to begin, after both militaries had made extensive
preparations and placed their air forces on the highest state of alert.
The
repeated planning efforts followed by Mr. Trump’s decisions against new attacks
has caused “day-to-day whiplash” among military planners, said one commander, who
spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, as they try
to stay poised to carry out whatever military option Mr. Trump decides in the coming
weeks.
In
each round of the war so far, Iran’s leadership has become less conciliatory, convinced
that the ultimate U.S. and Israeli goal is to topple its government.
Iran’s
new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an enigma to U.S. and Israeli
intelligence officials. Some officials say he is not as powerful as his father,
who was killed early in the war, and that hard-line members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps make key decisions.
Iranian
officials say they are aware of the American war planning and have been developing
their own new targets and tactics.
Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said
that if Pickaxe is attacked, part of Iran’s plans to retaliate would be to strike
major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco, because that would immediately
spike oil and energy prices.
“The
war has made us understand that the best leverage for pressuring Trump is increasing
oil and energy prices because it will hurt the American people,” Mr. Salehi said.
Mahdi
Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s negotiator Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,
said on social media this week that the idea that the United States would wrap up
another round of strikes on Iran within 72 hours was a “fantasy” and that Iran would
determine when the war would end. He noted that Mr. Trump said in February that
the war would last two weeks.
“Our
attacks will be more fierce, creative and different,” Mr. Mohammadi said. “We are
determined and confident, and strong planning has been put in place.”