U.S.-China Soybean Trade Offers Rare Stability Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

As the two nations address disputes ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, some American soybean farmers say they are in a better position than in 2025

· Shift in Agricultural Fortunes: As the Midwest soybean harvest gets underway, American farmers are experiencing a notable sense of relief compared to last year—when China completely halted U.S. soybean imports amid escalating trade hostilities.

· Rapidly Scaling Purchases: Ahead of President Xi Jinping's meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington, China has ramped up imports, purchasing roughly 15.7 million tonnes this year and averaging weekly imports of about 1 million tonnes, keeping Beijing on track to meet its annual 25-million-tonne commitment.

· A Welcome Point of Common Ground: While high-stakes technology disputes (such as AI distribution and hardware restrictions) remain deadlocked, agricultural trade provides a low-cost, mutually beneficial avenue for both nations to demonstrate tangible diplomatic progress.

· Political and Economic Motives:

o For the White House, strong agricultural exports support a key Republican voting base in critical mid-term states and offer a concrete deliverable.

o For Beijing, targeted agricultural buying is a pragmatic, low-cost mechanism to stabilize relations and navigate political calculations.

· The "Board of Trade" Initiative: Building on a mechanism established after high-level talks, Washington and Beijing are launching a Board of Trade to evaluate reciprocal tariff reductions covering about $30 billion in non-sensitive goods on each side—potentially including U.S. agricultural, energy, and medical exports.

· Cautious Industry Outlook: Despite the short-term optimism and strong export pace, farmers remain wary that purchasing trends are driven more by political positioning than pure market efficiency, with structural headwinds like cheaper Brazilian supply still looming.

[ABS News Service/22.09.2026]

As American farmers begin harvesting soybeans across the Midwest this month, some are feeling a sense of relief absent a year ago, when China – which typically buys around half of all US soybean exports – halted imports amid an escalating trade war.

This season is unfolding differently. Ahead of President Xi Jinping’s coming meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, China has rapidly scaled up purchases of American soybeans once again.

“US farmers genuinely appreciate the business relationship we have developed with Chinese buyers,” said Stan Born, who runs a soybean and corn farm in Illinois and is a former chair of the US Soybean Export Council.

Geopolitical tensions had overshadowed a decades-long relationship between US farmers and Chinese buyers, Born said, but he was “glad” the meeting between the two presidents was taking place.

While agricultural trade was once a key weapon in US-China economic hostilities, it may now offer a rare point of stability as Washington and Beijing confront far thornier disputes over areas such as artificial intelligence.

By early September, China had purchased roughly 15.7 million tonnes of soybeans this year, averaging purchases of at least 1 million tonnes per week recently, according to Hugh Grant-Chapman, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

That was a stark contrast to last year, when China recorded no soybean imports from the US after August – the first such halt since the 2018 trade war under the first Trump administration. The pace also puts Beijing well on track to meet its annual commitment of 25 million tonnes of American soybean purchases through 2028.

Both sides were “very keen to have a flagship achievement to point to” at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, Grant-Chapman said.

“Agriculture ... is, at least from Washington’s perspective, an economic relationship that does not have the baggage of other hot-button issues like technology”, he said, adding that consensus would be far harder to reach on those disputes, such as Chinese open-weight AI model distribution and US restrictions on Chinese drones and network hardware imports.

The United States also exported around US$4.6 billion in non-soybean agricultural products to China in the first seven months of the year, according to CSIS calculations.

Although unlikely to reach the US$17 billion annual target set during Trump’s visit to Beijing in May – despite assertions otherwise by US officials – these export figures are set to surpass 2025’s full-year total of US$6.4 billion, which could let officials claim some progress is being made, Grant-Chapman said.

Kang Mengjie, a policy analyst at advisory firm Hutong Research, similarly noted that agriculture was one of the clearest avenues for a commercial deliverable. She expected Xi’s visit to reaffirm and implement the commitments made in May, with the possibility of additional purchase announcements.

“Soybean, beef, poultry and other purchases support farm income and give Trump a concrete result to present to agricultural states ahead of the midterm elections,” Kang said.

Farmers and ranchers formed a core Republican voting base, especially in states critical to the party’s prospects in the November midterms, she noted.

Beef has become a particularly sensitive topic after Trump expanded imports at lower tariff rates late last month in response to high domestic prices, angering American farmers.

Increasing Chinese purchases would create fresh export demand to help ease those concerns, Kang said.

“For Beijing, agricultural purchases remain a relatively low-cost way to stabilise relations with Washington,” she said, noting that targeted buying would be useful diplomatically as Beijing understands the domestic political importance of farmers to Trump.

“China needs imported soybeans and selected meat products,” Kang added.

Soybean imports accounted for around 85 per cent of China’s total supply in 2023, according to a report last year by S&P Global. Most of these imports are used as an affordable protein source for animal feed.

Brazil is China’s primary supplier, with its crop holding a price advantage over American soybeans.

“There is a market logic headwind to sticking with US imports,” Grant-Chapman said, predicting that Chinese buyers would taper off American purchases after meeting commitments in favour of cheaper sources elsewhere.

However, Kang noted that select US agricultural goods, including soybeans, could regain commercial appeal among private Chinese buyers if Beijing granted exemptions from the 10 per cent tariff currently still in place for all American imports.

Following the top-level diplomatic meeting in May, Washington and Beijing established a Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions covering US$30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods on each side. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told media after US-China trade talks on Sunday that the two sides were launching the operation, which could include Chinese exports of consumer and low-tech goods and American exports of energy, agricultural products and medical devices.

“There’s a lot of hope riding on [the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting] because farmers have felt a big squeeze from other parts of the economy,” Grant-Chapman said. Fertiliser and diesel prices have surged following shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while land and labour costs are also rising in the US.

He described the prevailing mood as one of “cautious optimism” – an outlook shared by Illinois farmer Born. While Born welcomed news of the summit, he remained doubtful that increased Chinese purchases of soybeans would persist.

“The track record of purchase decisions is being driven by political positioning and not by science, economics, and efficiency,” said Born.

“But I believe soy is not as high on the hit list as it once was,” he added.

Perhaps commercial reasons, such as some Chinese buyers’ preference for the quality of American soy, “will have more weight in purchase decisions if we are in the ‘shadow’ of other issues like AI,” Born said.