Ukraine Shifts Away from
Iron and Steel to Agri Exports
·
Total
trade-to-GDP ratio falling to 78% in 2023 from nearly 106% in 2016.
·
The
direction of Ukraine's trade has markedly shifted away from the Russian Federation
and other parts of the former Soviet Union to the European Union, which in 2023
represented nearly 65% of the total value of Ukraine's goods exports, up from 27%
in 2008.
·
Digitally
delivered services exports grew at an average annual rate of 16% (albeit from a
low base),
·
Diverse
and rich mineral resource base, which includes critical minerals such as bauxite,
graphite, titanium, and lithium, Ukraine also has the potential to benefit from
the reorganization of global value chains for low-carbon technologies and contribute
to the clean energy transition.
·
Ukraine
has a vast natural gas transmission and storage infrastructure, which could be repurposed
for renewable gases and play a role in supporting Europe's energy security.
·
Adverse
demographic trends. The population decreased from about 45 million in 2016 to 33.4
million in 2024, mainly due to low birth rates, labour migration, and a war-induced
population exodus and displacement.
·
The
war, in particular, led to a 29% collapse in real GDP in 2022, amid severe damage
to energy infrastructure, disruptions to trade routes, and other supply-side constraints.
·
Ukraine
accepted the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, amended its GATS schedule to reflect
the results of the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation, and ratified
the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA). Ukraine participates in the Information
Technology Agreement (but not its expansion) and the WTO's work on electronic commerce,
MSMEs, trade and gender, and trade and environmental sustainability.
·
Ukraine
is a party to 19 RTAs. Of these, the Association Agreement with the European Union
(Association Agreement), which entered into force in September 2017, has had the
most profound influence on Ukraine's trade and related policies. The authorities
estimate that Ukraine has completed about 77% of the approximately 1,950 tasks needed
to implement the Association Agreement. In June 2022, Ukraine was granted candidate
status for accession to the European Union.
·
During
the period under review, Ukraine concluded two new RTAs (with Israel and the United
Kingdom) and updated existing ones with Canada and North Macedonia.
·
Commonwealth
of Independent States FTA to trade relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation
has been suspended by both parties.
·
Ukraine's
2024 average applied MFN tariff remains low, at 4.8%, with nearly 40% of all
tariff lines being duty-free. The applied MFN tariff on agricultural products
(WTO definition) averaged 9.7%, compared with 3.5% for non-agricultural
products.
·
Ukraine
continued to make use of trade remedy measures during the review period. In
July 2024, Ukraine applied 26 definitive anti-dumping measures.