WORLD TRADE VOLUME GROWTH TO DIP IN 2019

·         India Moves Up One Notch in World Trade Ranking of Exports, Imports of both Goods and Services

·         India Moves UP to 19th Position in World Exports Share, 10th on Import Side

·         China Shows Fall in Exports by 9% but Maintains Overall Top Position in Trade

Growth in 2018 Hit by New Tariffs, Weak Economic Growth

India recorded double-digit growth in commercial services trade on both the export side (11 per cent) and the import side (14 per cent).

Growth in global trade volumes is likely to slow down to 2.6 per cent in 2019 compared to 3 per cent in 2018, due to rising trade tensions between major economic powers and increased economic uncertainty, according to WTO estimates.

Trade growth could then rebound to 3 per cent in 2020, but only if there is an easing of trade tensions, said a WTO report released on Tuesday.

World GDP growth is expected to decline from 2.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.6 per cent in both 2019 and 2020, the report added.

 “Trade growth in 2018 was weighed down by several factors, including new tariffs and retaliatory measures affecting widely traded goods, weaker global economic growth, volatility in financial markets and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries, among others,” the report stated.

Trade growth in 2020 is expected to outpace GDP growth due to faster growth in developing economies, it added.

With trade tensions running high, no one should be surprised by this outlook, said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo. “Trade cannot play its full role in driving growth when we see such high levels of uncertainty. It is increasingly urgent that we resolve tensions and focus on charting a positive path forward for global trade which responds to the real challenges in today’s economy — such as the technological revolution and the imperative of creating jobs and boosting development,” he said.

The US and China have been engaged in a trade war over the past year, imposing retaliatory duties on imports sourced from each other. Several other countries, too, have become increasingly protectionist, introducing a number of tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports.

The value of merchandise trade was up 10 per cent to $19.48 trillion in 2018, partly due to higher energy prices. The value of commercial services trade rose 8 per cent to $5.80 trillion in 2018, driven by strong import growth in Asia, the report added.

[Click here for full text of WTO Press Release]

 

India Moves up by One Place in World Exports and Imports in 2018

Leading Merchandise Exporters and Importers, 2018

Rank 2018

Rank 2017

Exporters

Value

Share

Annual % change

Rank 2018

Rank 2017

Importers

Value

Share

Annual % change

1

1

China

2487

12.8

10

1

1

United States of America

2614

13.2

9

2

2

United States of America

1664

8.5

8

2

2

China

2136

10.8

16

3

3

Germany

1561

8.0

8

3

3

Germany

1286

6.5

11

4

4

Japan

738

3.8

6

4

4

Japan

749

3.8

11

5

5

Netherlands

723

3.7

11

5

5

United Kingdom

674

3.4

5

6

6

Korea , Republic of

605

3.1

5

6

6

France

673

3.4

9

7

8

France

582

3.0

9

7

8

Netherlands

646

3.3

12

8

7

Hong Kong, China

569

2.9

3

8

7

Hong Kong, China

628

3.2

6

 

 

Domestic exports

13

0.1

-30

 

 

Retained imports 1

155

0.8

12

 

 

- re-exports

556

2.9

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

9

Italy

547

2.8

8

9

9

Korea , Republic of

535

2.7

12

10

10

United Kingdom

486

2.5

10

10

11

India

511

2.6

14

11

11

Belgium

467

2.4

8

11

10

Italy

501

2.5

11

12

13

Mexico

451

2.3

10

12

13

Mexico

477

2.4

10

13

12

Canada

450

2.3

7

13

12

Canada  1

469

2.4

6

14

16

Russian Federation

444

2.3

26

14

14

Belgium

450

2.3

10

15

14

Singapore

413

2.1

11

15

15

Spain

388

2.0

10

 

 

Domestic exports

209

1.1

11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- re-exports

203

1.0

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

16

15

United Arab Emirates  1

346

1.8

10

16

16

Singapore

371

1.9

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- retained imports  1

167

0.8

17

17

17

Spain

345

1.8

8

17

19

Chinese Taipei

286

1.4

10

18

18

Chinese Taipei

336

1.7

6

18

17

Switzerland b

279

1.4

4

19

20

India

326

1.7

9

19

22

Poland

267

1.3

14

20

19

Switzerland b

311

1.6

4

20

18

United Arab Emirates  1

253

1.3

-6

21

24

Saudi Arabia , Kingdom of 1

299

1.5

35

21

24

Thailand

250

1.3

13

22

22

Poland

261

1.3

11

22

20

Russian Federation  2

249

1.3

5

23

23

Australia

257

1.3

11

23

25

Viet Nam 1

244

1.2

15

24

21

Thailand

252

1.3

7

24

23

Australia  1

236

1.2

3

25

25

Malaysia

247

1.3

14

25

21

Turkey

223

1.1

-5

26

27

Viet Nam 1

246

1.3

15

26

26

Malaysia

217

1.1

12

27

26

Brazil

240

1.2

10

27

27

Austria

193

1.0

10

28

28

Czech Republic

202

1.0

11

28

29

Brazil 1

189

0.9

20

29

30

Austria

185

0.9

10

29

30

Indonesia

189

0.9

20

30

29

Indonesia

180

0.9

7

30

28

Czech Republic

184

0.9

13

 

 

Total of above 3

16217

83.3

-

 

 

Total of above 3

16364

82.4

-

 

 

World  3

19475

100.0

10

 

 

World 3

19867

100

10

1 Secretariat estimates.
2 Imports are valued f.o.b.
3 Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Source: WTO and UNCTAD

 

India Moves Up by One Place in World Service Exports

Leading Exporters and Importers of Commercial Services, 2018

 

Rank 2018

Rank 2017

Exporters

Value

Share

Annual % change

Rank 2018

Rank 2017

Importers

Value

Share

Annual % change

1

1

United States of America

808

13.9

4

1

1

United States of America

536

9.7

3

2

2

United Kingdom

381

6.6

7

2

2

China  a

521

9.4

12

3

3

Germany

337

5.8

7

3

3

Germany

364

6.6

6

4

4

France

287

5.0

5

4

4

France

255

4.6

4

5

5

China  a

265

4.6

17

6

5

United Kingdom

230

4.2

11

6

6

Netherlands

241

4.2

11

5

6

Netherlands

228

4.1

10

7

7

Ireland

206

3.6

14

7

7

Ireland

219

4.0

9

8

9

India

206

3.5

11

8

8

Japan

198

3.6

4

9

8

Japan

187

3.2

3

9

9

Singapore

187

3.4

3

10

10

Singapore

184

3.2

7

10

10

India  1

175

3.2

14

11

11

Spain

149

2.6

8

11

11

Korea , Republic of

127

2.3

2

12

12

Switzerland

122

2.1

1

12

12

Belgium

127

2.3

10

13

13

Belgium

121

2.1

3

13

13

Italy

121

2.2

6

14

14

Italy

120

2.1

8

14

14

Canada

112

2.0

5

15

15

Hong Kong, China

114

2.0

9

15

15

Switzerland

103

1.9

0

16

16

Luxembourg

113

1.9

10

16

16

Russian Federation

94

1.7

7

17

17

Korea , Republic of

98

1.7

10

17

20

Spain

88

1.6

16

18

18

Canada

92

1.6

6

18

19

Luxembourg

86

1.6

10

19

19

Thailand

84

1.4

11

19

18

Hong Kong, China

81

1.5

5

20

24

Austria

75

1.3

14

20

22

Australia

72

1.3

6

21

20

Sweden

73

1.3

-1

21

17

United Arab Emirates 2

71

1.3

1

22

21

United Arab Emirates 2

71

1.2

2

22

24

Denmark

68

1.2

10

23

23

Denmark

70

1.2

4

23

21

Sweden

68

1.2

1

24

22

Australia

69

1.2

7

24

23

Brazil

66

1.2

-1

25

26

Poland

69

1.2

17

25

25

Austria

62

1.1

13

26

25

Russian Federation

64

1.1

12

26

27

Chinese Taipei

57

1.0

6

27

27

Chinese Taipei

50

0.9

12

27

29

Thailand

55

1.0

19

28

28

Israel

50

0.9

12

28

28

Norway

52

0.9

5

29

29

Turkey

47

0.8

9

29

26

Saudi Arabia , Kingdom of

51

0.9

-6

30

30

Macao, China 3

44

0.8

12

30

30

Malaysia

44

0.8

5

 

Total of above

4797

83.0

-

 

 

Total of above

4518

81.8

-

 

World

5800

100.0

8

 

 

World

5510

100.0

7

1 Imports adjusted to f.o.b. valuation.
2 Preliminary annual estimates. Quarterly data not available.
3 Follows BPM5 services classification.
- Indicates non-applicable.
Note: Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. More data available at http://data.wto.org/.

Source: WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.