WTO Goods Trade Barometer Signals Resilient Global Merchandise Trade Despite Geopolitical and Policy Headwinds

Global goods trade continued to strengthen in mid-2026 despite persistent geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, according to the WTO Goods Trade Barometer released on 9 September 2026.

· WTO Goods Trade Barometer rose to 102.0 in September 2026, up from 101.7 in June, indicating merchandise trade remains above trend.

· Strong trade momentum continues despite geopolitical tensions, trade-policy uncertainty and the Middle East conflict.

· Electronic components recorded the strongest index at 104.9, driven by strong demand for goods supporting AI investment and technology infrastructure.

· Export orders index: 103.5, signalling continued merchandise trade growth in the coming months.

· International air freight: 102.8 and agricultural raw materials: 102.6, both above trend.

· Automotive products: 101.5, showing modestly above-trend activity.

· Container shipping: 99.6, the only component below the 100 baseline, indicating some weakness in global shipping activity.

· Strong demand for AI-related electronic goods is partly offsetting the negative effects of the Middle East conflict.

· WTO's March 2026 forecast projected world merchandise trade growth of 1.9% in 2026 under the baseline scenario.

· Under a high-energy-price scenario, merchandise trade growth could slow to 1.4%.

· Sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to global merchandise trade growth.

· World merchandise trade volume remained positive year-on-year in Q1 2026.

· The impact of Strait of Hormuz trade disruptions is expected to become clearer in Q2 trade data.

· WTO will publish an updated Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in October 2026.

· Overall: The 102.0 reading suggests global goods trade is proving more resilient than expected, with AI-driven demand providing an important source of growth despite geopolitical and energy-related risks.

<Goods Trade Barometer Report>

[ABS News Service/10.09.2026]

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for merchandise trade, providing an early indication of the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while values less than 100 indicate that the volume of trade has fallen below trend.

The latest barometer reading of 102.0 (represented by the blue line in the above chart) is above both the baseline value of 100 and its previous reading of 101.7 from last June, indicating that merchandise trade is above trend and continues to gain momentum. The negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East continues to be partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

All of the barometer's component indices are above their common baseline value of 100 to varying degrees except for the container shipping index (99.6), which has dipped slightly below trend. The strongest reading was for the electronic components index (104.9), reflecting robust demand for AI-enabling goods. The highly predictive export orders index (103.5) has also strengthened, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the months ahead. The indices representing international air freight (102.8) and agricultural raw materials trade (102.6) have risen firmly above trend while the automotive products index (101.5) has risen slightly above trend. Taken together, the component indices suggest that merchandise trade growth has remained resilient despite elevated uncertainty surrounding trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The WTO Secretariat's most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report, issued on 19 March 2026, forecast growth in world merchandise trade volume of 1.9% in 2026 under a baseline scenario and 1.4% under a high-energy-price scenario reflecting headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East. The report also noted that sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth. Year-on-year growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained positive in the first quarter of 2026. Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the second quarter once figures for this period are available. An update to the GTOS report will be published in October.