The World Trade Organization said that the
drag on global trade from the war in the Middle East was more than offset by spending
on goods related to artificial intelligence.
·
Revised
growth forecast: The World Trade Organization (WTO)
expects global trade in goods to grow by 3.9%
in 2026, almost double its March forecast. Growth is projected
to accelerate to 4.1% in
2027.
·
AI-driven
trade boom: Strong global spending on artificial
intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including advanced chips and related
equipment, has emerged as the principal driver of trade growth.
·
67%
growth in AI-related goods: Trade in goods
enabling AI expanded by 67%
in the first half of 2026, accounting for approximately half of the increase in the value of
global merchandise trade during the period.
·
Middle
East conflict and US tariffs: The expansion in
AI-related trade has more than offset the adverse effects of the Iran war,
disruptions to shipping and energy supplies, and tariffs imposed by the Trump
administration.
·
Resilience
of global trade: WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill
highlighted the resilience of the global economy and international trade over
the preceding six months, despite significant geopolitical and economic
challenges.
·
Energy
and shipping disruptions: Higher energy prices
and shipping difficulties caused by the Middle East conflict have increased
costs and created significant challenges for businesses and global supply
chains.
·
Sharp
decline in Middle Eastern energy exports:
During the first half of 2026, compared with the corresponding period in 2025:
o Middle Eastern crude oil export volumes
declined by 24%.
o Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports fell
by 47%.
·
Alternative
suppliers mitigate supply shortages:
Countries outside the conflict-affected region increased energy and fertilizer
production and exports, helping compensate for supply disruptions and enabling
many countries to withstand the shock.
·
Uneven
impact across regions: The WTO cautioned that
the resilience of global trade has not been uniform. The Middle East has
suffered particularly significant losses, while certain regions and sectors
remain more vulnerable to the conflict.
·
Two
opposing forces shaping trade: WTO
Chief Economist Robert Staiger identified two major trends in 2026:
1. The Middle East conflict, disrupting trade
in both goods and services.
2. Exceptionally strong investment in AI
infrastructure, stimulating international trade in advanced technology
products.
The AI investment boom is currently
outweighing the negative impact of geopolitical conflict, energy shortages and
US tariffs on global merchandise trade.
However, continued growth will depend on the resilience of supply chains,
energy availability and the sustainability of investment in AI infrastructure.
[ABS News Service/08.10.2026]
The
World Trade Organization said Thursday (08.10.2026) that it expected the global
trade in goods to grow by 3.9 percent this year, almost double the rate it had forecast
in March, as spending on expensive chips and other equipment needed to produce artificial
intelligence boosts cross-border commerce.
The
rapid trade in A.I. goods more than offset the drag on trade from the war in the
Middle East and tariffs issued by the Trump administration. The W.T.O. expects trade
growth to pick up slightly next year, accelerating to 4.1 percent.
Johanna
Hill, a deputy director-general at the organization, said in a news conference Thursday
that the resilience of the global economy and of trade had been “a striking feature
of the past six months.”
Higher
energy prices and shipping disruptions stemming from the war in Iran have created
significant headwinds for companies seeking to trade. However, businesses and supply
chains have adapted, and producers of energy and fertilizer in other regions have
stepped in to replace disrupted supplies, she said.
The
W.T.O. cautioned that the resilience was not uniform, and that some regions and
sectors had been hit harder by the Middle Eastern war.
Robert
Staiger, the organization’s chief economist, said that the conflict had taken a
significant toll on trade particularly within the Middle East. The quantity of crude
oil exported by the Middle East was down 24 percent in the first half of 2026 compared
with the same period in 2025, while exports of liquefied natural gas were down 47
percent.
But
global trading systems have helped many countries weather the shock, he said. Countries
outside the region increased production and exports of energy and fertilizer to
compensate for the loss of supply.
Trade
in goods that enable A.I. also grew an astonishing 67 percent in the first half
of 2026, accounting for about half of the increase in the value of the global trade
in goods in the period.
In
2026, global trade was “shaped by two opposing forces: a Middle East conflict affecting
services as much as goods, and an exceptionally strong wave of investment in A.I.
infrastructure,” Mr. Staiger said. “So far, the second force has outweighed the
first.”