WTO Warns of Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade Growth in 2026
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has
projected that global goods trade will grow only 0.5% in 2026, down sharply
from its earlier estimate of 1.8%, as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs
weigh on global commerce.
Trade has proved more resilient in 2025,
with growth revised up to 2.4% from 0.9%, supported by stockpiling
ahead of tariffs and strong demand for AI-related products. WTO
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said “unprecedented uncertainty” in
trade policy is slowing momentum, though developing nations have sustained
trade by increasing activity among themselves.
The WTO warned that U.S. import tariffs on
steel, aluminum, cars, and other goods have
lifted average U.S. tariffs to century-high levels. The U.S. government
shutdown has also delayed trade data releases, further clouding visibility
into the health of the global economy.
The
World Trade Organization said trade growth had proved more resilient in 2025
than expected, but would slow next year as result of President Trump’s tariffs.
The
World Trade Organization on Tuesday forecast slower trade growth for next year
because of the Trump administration’s sweeping global tariffs, but it said
trade had proved more resilient than expected so far this year.
The
Geneva-based organization said in a report released on Tuesday morning that it
expected goods trade to expand 2.4 percent this year. That was up from its
previous forecast of just 0.9 percent, which it issued in August. Trade in
goods expanded 2.8 percent in 2024.
But
the global body sharply lowered its projection for next year’s growth to just
0.5 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent. The group also forecast
slower growth in the trade of services, which it said was linked to flows of
goods.
The
W.T.O. has repeatedly expressed concern about the economic effects of President
Trump’s tariffs, which include double-digit import taxes on nearly all trading
partners, along with stiff levies on imports of strategic items like steel, aluminum and cars. The moves have raised average tariffs to
levels not seen in the United States in a century.
Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the W.T.O., said that “unprecedented”
uncertainty over trade policy had slowed growth and that she was concerned
about the effects.
But
global trade has not slowed as much as anticipated this year in part because
W.T.O. members have taken restrained responses to American tariffs and refused
to engage in tat-for-tat retaliation, she said. Trade among developing
countries had also risen, she added.
“The
rest of the world is trading with itself,” she said.
The
W.T.O. said several other factors had also lifted global trade in goods this
year. Companies stockpiled goods before tariffs went into effect, pushing up
imports and exports. The world was also seeing strong demand for products
related to artificial intelligence, the W.T.O. said.
The
U.S. government was also scheduled to release data on Tuesday morning on U.S.
imports and exports in August. But because of the government shutdown, U.S.
data releases have been paused. It is not clear when the data will be issued.
Economists
said the August trade data could show a marked slowdown in U.S. imports,
because of the steep tariffs Mr. Trump put on exports from dozens of nations on
Aug. 7.
In
July, government data showed U.S. imports rebounding slightly after months of
lower trade, as companies rushed to bring in goods before the additional
tariffs went into effect in August.