World Trade Volume Remained Flat in Q3 of 2025 While Its Dollar Value Hit Record High Following Price Rise

The volume of world merchandise trade plateaued at a high level in the third quarter of 2025 following a strong first-half expansion driven by import frontloading, favourable macroeconomic conditions and rising demand for AI-related products. At the same time, the US dollar value of merchandise trade rose to an all-time high, lifted by rising export and import prices and a weaker US dollar.

1. Overall Trends

· Trade volume: Plateaued at high levels, up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 3.6% year-on-year.

· Trade value (USD): Hit a record high, up 7.5% year-on-year, reflecting higher prices and weaker US dollar.

· Gap between nominal and real growth widened due to currency depreciation and price effects.

2. Drivers of Growth

· Import frontloading ahead of tariff hikes.

· AI-related goods (chips, semiconductors, data equipment):

o Value up ~20% year-on-year.

o Accounted for 15% of trade volume but 42% of trade growth.

· Non-AI goods: Value up 4.4% year-on-year, driven by:

o Gold prices (safe-haven demand).

o Pharmaceuticals (anti-obesity drugs, vaccine inputs).

3. Regional Export Trends (Jan–Sep 2025)

· Strongest growth: Asia (9.5%), Africa (6.1%), South/Central America & Caribbean (5.7%).

· Moderate growth: Middle East (5.3%), North America (2.3%).

· Declines: Europe (-0.3%), CIS (-1.7%).

4. Regional Import Trends

· Fastest growth: South/Central America (13.2%), Africa (12.7%).

· Moderate: Middle East (6.2%), Asia (6.0%), North America (5.4%), Europe (2.4%).

· Weakest: CIS (0.5%).

5. Country-Level Highlights

· Strong export growth: Chinese Taipei (35%), Switzerland (24%), Egypt (23%), Costa Rica, Slovenia, Ireland (22% each), Viet Nam (17%).

· Moderate growth: US (6%), EU (6% extra-EU), China (5%), Japan (5%).

· Declines: Russia (-4%), Kazakhstan (-5%).

· Strong import growth: Switzerland (36%), Argentina (27%), Chinese Taipei (23%), Viet Nam (19%), Hong Kong (17%), Morocco (16%).

· Slight declines: China (-1%), Greece (-1%), Russia (-1%), Malta (-3%).

Overall Takeaway

World trade volumes stabilized in Q3 2025 after strong early-year growth, but trade values surged to record highs due to rising prices, currency effects, and booming demand for AI-related goods. Regional performance was uneven, with Asia and Africa leading exports, while South America and Africa led imports. Smaller open economies outperformed larger ones, while commodity-based exporters struggled.

[ABS News Service/30.01.2026]

Merchandise trade grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted volume basis. By comparison, the dollar value of trade was up 7.5% year-on-year in the same period, highlighting a widening gap between growth in nominal and real terms (see Chart 1). Stronger growth in value terms than in volume terms was partly due to currency depreciation, as the US dollar fell 1.9% year-on-year in value against a broad basket of currencies in the third quarter. Dollar depreciation tends to inflate the dollar value of trade flows denominated in other currencies, for example intra-EU trade.

For the year through September 2025, merchandise trade volume was up 4.5% compared to the same period in 2024. This is stronger than the headline forecast of 2.5% for 2025 in the WTO Secretariat's most recent forecast from last October. In the same January-September period, the value of merchandise trade was up 6.5% year-on-year. Although a weaker dollar contributed to merchandise trade growth in value terms, import frontloading ahead of expected tariff hikes and surging demand for AI-related goods were more significant factors.

In the first three quarters of 2025, trade in AI-related goods, such as chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment - most of which are exempted from the new tariffs - increased almost 20% year-on-year in value terms. While AI-related goods made up around 15% of world merchandise trade in the first three quarters of 2025, they accounted for 42% of year-on-year merchandise trade growth during the period.

Trade in non-AI goods also continued to expand, up 4.4% year-on-year in value terms in the first three quarters of 2025. A key driver was the skyrocketing price of gold, which serves as a safe-haven investment in times of economic uncertainty. Medicines and pharmaceuticals, particularly anti-obesity drugs and vaccine inputs, also contributed to the increase, particularly in the first quarter, as imports surged in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes.

In the first nine months of 2025, Asia recorded the strongest year-on-year growth in export volumes (9.5%), followed by Africa (6.1%) and South and Central America and the Caribbean (5.7%). Exports also increased in the Middle East (5.3%) and North America (2.3%) but declined slightly in Europe (-0.3%) and moderately in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former members states (-1.7%) (see Chart 2).

On the import side, the fastest growth was observed in South and Central America and the Caribbean (13.2%) and Africa (12.7%), more than twice the pace seen in the Middle East (6.2%) and Asia (6.0%). North American imports grew by an average of 5.4%, while Europe recorded more modest growth of 2.4%. The weakest import performance was in the CIS, at just 0.5%.

Recent monthly merchandise trade figures in value terms show strong increases in Asian economies - particularly in high-tech manufacturing exporters - paired with more moderate growth in other economies and regions (see Chart 3).

The strongest export performances were seen in small open economies, including Chinese Taipei (35%), Switzerland (24%), Egypt (23%), Costa Rica, Slovenia and Ireland (22% each), and Viet Nam (17%). Larger economies such as the United States (6%), the European Union (6% growth in extra-EU trade), China (5%) and Japan (5%) saw more moderate increases. Meanwhile, commodity-based economies recorded declines, including the Russian Federation (-4%) and Kazakhstan (-5%).

The strongest growth rates on the import side were observed in Switzerland (36%), Argentina (27%), Chinese Taipei (23%), Viet Nam (19%), Hong Kong, China (17%) and Morocco (16%), indicating surging investment and/or reliance on imported intermediates. Others major economies reported import growth of between 4% and 10%, including the European Union (6% extra-EU trade), the United States (6%) and Brazil (6%), pointing to resilient consumption and input demand. Imports contracted slightly in China (-1%), Greece (-1%), the Russian Federation (-1%) and Malta (-3%).