Xi
Not Sure on Joining Brics New Delhi Summit
Beijing leverages Eurasian and
Middle East ties to show Washington it has alternatives
Xi Jinping’s Diplomatic Blitz
Ahead of Trump Summit Aims to Strengthen China’s Global Leverage
·
Chinese President Xi Jinping
is undertaking an unusually intensive diplomatic schedule ahead of his expected
summit with U.S. President Donald Trump.
·
His recent engagements include:
o
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(SCO) Summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
o
State visit to Egypt
o
Expected participation in the BRICS
Summit in New Delhi
o
Subsequent expected visit to Washington
for talks with Trump.
·
Beijing had not yet officially
confirmed the New Delhi and Washington trips, consistent with its practice of
announcing senior leaders' foreign travel shortly before departure.
Strategy
Beyond Washington
·
Analysts view Xi's diplomatic
activity as more than preparation for bilateral U.S.–China negotiations.
·
The sequence is intended to
demonstrate that China's foreign policy does not revolve around Washington
and that Beijing has:
o
A broad network of international
partners;
o
Alternative economic and
diplomatic options;
o
Significant strategic space
outside U.S.-led institutions.
·
Tsinghua University's Sun Chenghao said the diplomatic itinerary could strengthen
China's negotiating position by demonstrating its ability to operate through multilateral
institutions and partnerships.
SCO as a
Platform for Chinese Influence
·
The SCO brings together major
Eurasian powers and countries including Russia, Iran and India,
providing Beijing with an important platform for projecting influence beyond
the U.S.-led international system.
·
Xi promoted the SCO's model of
peaceful coexistence without alliances, confrontation or targeting third
parties, implicitly contrasting it with traditional military alliances.
·
SCO leaders also condemned
military strikes on Iran, describing them as violations of international
law and risks to international peace and security.
·
They supported Iran's right, as
an SCO member, to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme under the
Non-Proliferation Treaty, contrasting with Washington's demand that Tehran
abandon nuclear capabilities.
Egypt and
the Middle East
·
During his first visit to Egypt
in a decade, Xi called on Middle Eastern countries to develop a self-led
regional security framework and take greater responsibility for their own
future.
·
The message encourages countries
to reduce dependence on Washington without explicitly positioning China as a
replacement security guarantor.
·
China and Egypt also expanded defence
cooperation, including their second joint air-force exercise conducted from
mid-August to early September.
·
The development could concern
Washington because Egypt has historically been a major recipient of U.S.
defence assistance.
Eurasia,
Energy and Supply Chains
·
China's expanding energy and
infrastructure relationships across Eurasia could provide Beijing with
negotiating leverage in areas important to Washington, including:
o
Russia;
o
Iran;
o
Critical minerals;
o
Energy;
o
Global supply chains.
·
The objective is not necessarily
to build a bloc against the United States, but to ensure that China retains economic
partners and policy alternatives if U.S.–China negotiations deteriorate.
BRICS and
India
·
The upcoming BRICS Summit in New
Delhi provides another opportunity for Beijing to strengthen relations with
emerging economies and promote a more multipolar and multilateral global
order.
·
Some analysts see potential for
India to use the summit to:
o
Manage tensions involving both
Washington and Beijing;
o
Expand China-India cooperation on
global issues; and
o
Strengthen the role of the Global
South.
·
However, analysts caution against
overstating the potential impact.
·
China's relationship with Pakistan
remains India's major regional concern, and participation in the SCO does
not resolve that strategic rivalry.
·
China's ability to use BRICS to
create distance between India and the U.S. is therefore considered limited.
China’s
Broader Objective
·
Analysts describe Xi's strategy
as an attempt to create an international ecosystem less centred on
Washington while simultaneously maintaining productive relations with the
United States.
·
The sequencing is significant: Xi
can arrive in Washington after demonstrating China's extensive diplomatic
relationships across Eurasia, the Middle East and the Global South.
·
This potentially strengthens
China's bargaining position because Beijing can signal that failure in
bilateral negotiations would not leave China diplomatically or economically
isolated.
Key
Takeaway
Xi's diplomatic push before
meeting Trump is essentially a strategy of strengthening China's alternatives
before negotiating with Washington. By engaging the SCO, BRICS,
Egypt and other Global South partners, Beijing seeks greater economic,
diplomatic and strategic manoeuvring space. The objective is not necessarily to
replace the U.S.-led system immediately, but to make China's position less
dependent on Washington and therefore stronger at the negotiating table.
His summit with US President Donald Trump is just over two
weeks away, but already this month Xi Jinping has had one of his busiest stretches
of diplomatic travel in recent years.
First he wrapped up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, and then he made a state visit to Egypt.
Xi is expected to head off again later this week to visit
New Delhi for the Brics summit before he travels to Washington. Beijing has not
yet confirmed those two trips, in line with its practice of making official travel
announcements at the last minute.
Observers say the flurry of diplomatic activity is not only
about making progress on bilateral ties but also an effort to strengthen China’s
negotiating hand with the United States.
Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua
University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said the summit with
Trump was important but Xi’s diplomatic sequencing emphasised that China’s foreign
relations did not “revolve around a single axis centred on Washington”.
“What Bishkek, Cairo and New Delhi truly offer is a demonstration
to Washington that China possesses substantial space for strategic manoeuvre and
a broad network of international partners,” Sun said, adding that the diplomatic
itinerary highlighted Beijing’s emphasis on multilateralism and global governance.
This was echoed by Julian Gewirtz, a senior research scholar
at Columbia University’s school of international and public affairs.
“Xi appears to see an opportunity to show that China has friends
and options around the world at precisely the moment Washington is alienating many
of its allies,” Gewirtz wrote in a Substack post on August
28.
The SCO summit – which brings together key Central Asian nations
and powers such as Iran, Russia and India – is widely viewed as a platform for Beijing
to project its strategic influence outside Washington-led institutions.
In a veiled swipe at the US military alliance system, Xi praised
the SCO at the summit for charting a path of peaceful coexistence “without alliance,
confrontation or targeting any third party”.
And, without naming the US or Israel, the leaders issued a
joint statement condemning military strikes on Iran for violating international
law and posing “serious risks to international peace, security and stability”.
They also backed the right of Iran as an SCO member state
to a peaceful nuclear programme under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Trump has repeatedly
insisted Tehran abandon all nuclear capabilities, a demand Iran has rejected.
Gewirtz said Beijing’s diplomatic whirlwind was intended to
show China could build an “international ecosystem less centred on Washington while
managing – and extracting benefits from – Washington itself”.
“Xi will spend September cultivating institutions and relationships
meant to expand Beijing’s influence across Eurasia and the Global South, then fly
to Washington to be welcomed by an American president eager to celebrate their relationship.
“For Xi, that sequence is not a contradiction. It is the point.”
Sun, of Tsinghua University, noted that the diplomatic tour,
which covered vital pillars of China’s diplomacy, could also improve Beijing’s strategic
environment when negotiating with Washington.
China’s deepening energy and infrastructure ties across Eurasia
yielded tangible leverage which Washington could not ignore if it expected Beijing’s
cooperation on issues regarding Russia, Iran, critical minerals and global supply
chains, he said.
He pointed out that the diplomatic blitz created a posture
“with greater room for imagination” for his US visits, as Xi would arrive in Washington
not merely as a leader defined by the US-China rivalry, but one fresh off a series
of major multilateral and bilateral diplomatic engagements.
“What truly enhances China’s negotiating power is not how
many countries take its side diplomatically, but whether China can convince the
US that even if bilateral negotiations run into trouble, China still retains sufficient
economic partners, diplomatic manoeuvring space and policy options,” Sun said.
Last week, during his first visit to Egypt in a decade, Xi
urged Middle Eastern countries to build a self-led security model and “independently
take charge of their own future”, nudging them to cut reliance on Washington without
positioning Beijing as an alternative security guarantor.
The trip took place as tensions flared again over the US-Israel
war with Iran, which has prompted regional US allies to rethink their strategic
ties with Washington.
China and Egypt also deepened their defence cooperation, conducting
their second joint air force exercise from mid-August to early September.
Jesse Marks, founder of Middle East consultancy Rihla Research and Advisory, said Washington would see this
as a potential risk given that Cairo had historically been a primary recipient of
US defence aid, although bilateral relations had been strained in recent years.
Zhang Chi, a senior researcher at the University of Hong Kong’s
Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said that while China and the US aimed
to stabilise their ties, Beijing’s risks and challenges remained and it needed to
“unite all viable forces to rally momentum behind leading ‘true multilateralism’”.
He said polls from this year showed a broader trend of China’s
global favourability outpacing that of the US.
“Capitalising on this strategic window – particularly converting
favourable public sentiment into [other countries’] positive China policies – will
be a major task for Beijing,” Zhang said.
While some view the coming Brics summit in Delhi as a diplomatic
opportunity for India to ease tensions with the US and expand China-India cooperation
on global conflicts, Marks doubted the outcomes from Cairo and Delhi would be “sufficient
to tip the scales away from Washington”.
“China and its ties with Pakistan are still India’s largest
regional concern, and SCO ties do not resolve that. China may want to wedge between
India and the US, but that can only go so far,” he said.
“Same with Cairo, because Cairo’s largest regional concerns
will not be solved by China, but they will be directly shaped by the US.”